More on BRICS at its 15th Summit – P J James

More on BRICS at its 15th Summit

P J James

Many political commentators have evaluated the 15th BRICS – comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – summit in Johannesburg, South Africa in the last week of August, 2023, as a turning point in international relations amid mounting economic crisis and sharpening geopolitical tensions. Some have even gone to the extent of characterizing it as the “the 21st-century equivalent of the Bandung conference of 1955 leading to the formation of the the “non-aligned movement” (NAM) which became defunct by the beginning of the 1990s with the collapse of Soviet Union and end of “Cold War” followed by the advent of neoliberal globalisation. In our analysis of BRICS under subsection “BRICS: Unipolarity to Multipolarity?”, (pp 477-487) incorporated in the book Imperialism in the Neocolonial Phase (2015), we already have an evaluation of BRICS. This note is only with respect to the latest developments in view of the understanding in the Summit to expand its membership by 6 countries—Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—within one year – a move initiated by China, the leading player in BRICS, followed by the possibility of further expansion by including Nigeria, Mexico, Venezuela and Vietnam, thereby adding to the political-economic weight of the grouping.

At the outset, it is to be stated that the internal cohesion of BRICS is not like that of NATO led by US or Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) led by China. On account of the long-standing border dispute with China and as the strategic junior partner of US in the Indo-Pacific, and with its own “sub-imperialist” ambitions in South Asia, India is always at loggerheads with imperialist China. Moreover, being part of the US-led quasi-military pact Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue targeting China, it is difficult for India to be fully involved in BRICS. Hence, though many analysts envisage BRICS as the template for a change, a launching pad for a restructuring of the global political-economic relations, with growing tensions between China and India, who are among the leading players in the alliance, the BRICS will find it difficult to arrive at a unanimous declaration on many issues.

However, with its acknowledged position as the leading imperialist power next only to US and as effective contender with it, China is fast expanding its neocolonial spheres of influence in all continents including Latin America, the so called backyard of US imperialism. And China could outmanoeuvre US in the middle-east by establishing firm relations with many countries there including Saudi and UAE, though both are closely aligned with US. In fact China could go a step ahead of US not only in establishing political-economic links but even brokering a deal between Saudi and Iran who have been arch-enemies in the middle-east. Chinese push for incorporating Saudi, UAE and Iran into BRICS is in continuation of its successful diplomatic penetration into the entire middle-east. In this effort, China has the full backing of Russia, the latter along with former also being committed to counter the US and NATO allies. And the political, economic and military moves and interventions by US that result in resentment among many countries provides an objective situation that drives many countries to the BRICS.

To be more precise, while China along with Russia is trying to use the BRICS as a global forum to confront the US, India which is a strategic junior partner of US, is a stumbling bloc for this move. Meanwhile, through an expansion of BRICS by incorporating more countries from Asia, Africa and Latin America in which Chinese imperialist penetration through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), world’s biggest postwar capital export project has already taken place, China is planning to use the BRICS as a broader counterweight to US-led imperialist bloc like G-7. And through such BRICS institutions as the Shanghai-based BRICS bank – New Development Bank – China also envisages to effectively challenge US-led neocolonial institutions like Bretton Woods Institutions (IMF and Word Bank) along with pushing forward its own currency, the Remnibi and through the deployment of advances in digital technologies for speeding up the de-dollarisation process, i.e., dethroning the dollar from its position as the leading global currency. In this context, the opinion on the part of many countries of BRICS regarding the need for finding out ways of reducing their reliance on the US dollar in trade and other international payments is relevant. For instance, much before the Summit, Brazilian President Lula da Silva has floated the idea of a common BRICS currenncy.

In spite of these multi-pronged offensive targeted against US by China using the BRICS, India’s role as a US “Trojan horse” is a hindrance for arrive at a consensus on many issues. Though China has established close relations with many countries of Asia, middle-east and Africa significantly curtailing US clout, its contradictions with India and latter’s role as the strategic junior partner of US followed by US acknowledgement of India as the ‘big brother’ in South Asia are resulting in many internal contradictions in BRICS. This is going to be a decisive factor in determining it’s internal cohesion and the geopolitical role of BRICS in coming days.

(From Red Star Monthly, September 2023 Issue)