CPI (ML) Red Star Central Party School 2025
Paper 1
Shifting Imperialist Power Balance and India’s Status in the Emerging World Situation
P J James
Part-1
Decline of US Hegemony and 21st Century Changes in Inter-Imperialist Contradictions
Introduction
In the Party School Paper entitled “Imperialism Today”, presented to Central Committee in 2017, we have briefly analysed the fast changes that were taking place in imperialism under post-Cold War neoliberal-neofascist period. In fact, the original title of the book by Lenin, that unravelled the basic characteristics of imperialism was Imperialism, the Newest Stage of Capitalism, though its English translation has been Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism. That is, by the usage Newest or Latest, Lenin never visualised anything regarding a final epitaph of imperialism. Viewed in this perspective, the 2017 Paper had mentioned about a shake of the imperialist structure or a “restructuring” of the imperialist hierarchy inherited from the twentieth century. For instance, in accordance with the complex dimensions of both accumulation and circulation of capital in the neoliberal context of internationalization of finance capital, the Paper had identified that ‘export of capital’ pointed out by Lenin as one of the essential characteristics of imperialism is taking place even from ‘dependent’ and oppressed neocolonial countries too. When MLPD, pointing out export of capital from countries like India, came forward with its erroneous thesis that India and other 14 countries have become imperialist, we refuted that prognosis based on our understanding. Here, we are not going to a repetition of what we had discussed in the 2017 Paper.
Meanwhile, in the Party Program of CPI (ML) Red Star adopted at the 12th Congress, in the process of unfolding the international developments, has situated China as a leading 21st century imperialist power. It briefly explained how erstwhile People’s Republic of China became a bureaucratic state monopoly capitalism following capitalist restoration since the 1980s, and how it eventually transformed into an imperialist power by the turn of the 21st century. After joining WTO in 2021 and integrating itself with imperialist world system as one of the cheapest sources of labour, and hence production, China emerged as the biggest exporter of both goods and capital as manifested through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), within a short span of time. When the imperialist crisis of 2008, also called “global meltdown” inflicted severe damages on US and EU, it enabled China to emerge as a major contender with the US-led Anglo-Saxon imperialist powers for carving out neocolonial spheres influence. And, today under Trump, who is considered as “grave-digger” of US hegemony, China is challenging and even bypassing US (and EU) hegemonic role in many respects.
Today, when we are in the third decade of the 21st century, fast changes are taking place in imperialism. The law of impermanence or the idea that every social phenomenon is constantly changing and transforming itself, is becoming more evident in the case of imperialist world system too. As such, according to concrete evidence that is forthcoming, two centuries of world domination by Anglo-American capitalist-imperialist system is now in a downward phase. The flourishing industrial capitalism of more than a century from mid-18th century to the last quarter of the 19th century took place mainly under the leadership of Britain which, on the one hand, performed the role of ‘workshop of the world’ and on the other, remained as world’s leading colonial power with an ‘empire upon which the sun never set’. However, towards the last quarter of the 19th century and by the turn of the 20th century, when industrial or competitive capitalism gave way to monopoly finance capitalism or imperialism, the US emerged as the leading capitalist-imperialist power, in spite of UK’s continuance as colonial leader. And the US had to wait till the Second World War for the eventual transition from so called “Pax Britannica” to “Pax Americana”.
Thus, after Second World War and following the so called ‘decolonisation’ (i.e., formal ending of colonialism), the US took over the position of world hegemon and supreme arbiter of the postwar neocolonial phase of imperialism. Together with the political, economic and military arrangements required for unleashing neocolonialism, based on the 1946 agreement between US and UK, world’s most powerful and enduring intelligence alliance called the “Five Eyes Alliance” (encompassing 5 Anglo-American countries, viz., UK, US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand) led by CIA also came into being. Till the 1970s, on account of the presence of a Socialist Camp, US-led imperialism pursued a policy of state programming of the economy or welfare capitalism. But, when the imperialist crisis strengthened in the form of ‘stagflation’– a situation of economic stagnation coupled with high inflation – taking advantage of the ideological-political setbacks of the International Communist Movement since the beginning of the 1970s, US-led imperialism abandoned the ‘welfare state’ and embraced neoliberalism. Following the collapse of Soviet Union in 1991 and formal ending of Cold War, characterising the situation as ‘end of Communism’, US declared Isam as the new enemy and conceptualised the infamous “global war on terror” based on it. Establishment of WTO in 1995and ranging it along with IMF and World Bank in which US already has veto power, further strengthened neoliberal globalisation.
However, by the turn of the 21st century, especially after the World Economic Crisis or “global meltdown” of 2007-08, as already noted, US stature as world’s leading manufacturer and biggest trader has been lost to Chinese state monopoly capitalism or imperialism. US GDP, which was around half of world total in 1945, has declined to about 25 percent, while US gold reserve which was 75 percent of world total in 1945 has been reduced to less than 20 percent as of now. This has led to a loss of trust in dollar’s continuity as world currency, leading to a “de-dollarisation” trend in which China has its overt and covert role. And of late, as a manifestation of the inability to carry out the super-power responsibilities incumbent on it including the maintenance of around 750-800 military bases across 80 countries of the world, US imperialism has been backtracking from its international commitments, especially to UN-affiliated institutions, which, to an extent, were political tools propped up by US itself that enabled it to carry on the tasks as postwar neocolonial leader.
Advent of Trumpism and his Agenda of MAGA
The declining trend of US imperialist hegemony is now accelerated by the second coming of Donald Trump as US president with his far-right, racist, and Islamophobic neofascist policies codified as MAGA (Make America Great Again). Trumpism is characterised by extreme ‘economic nationalism’, the main pillars of which are assertion of US hegemony and boosting of the economy through highly ‘protectionist’ and ‘isolationist’ trade and tariff policies coupled with corporate tax-cuts, business deregulation and drastic reduction in social welfare spending. With his motto “America First” or MAGA, Trump’s bullying tariffs have already sent shock waves even among traditional EU and Anglo-Saxon allies of US. Meanwhile, following China’s retaliatory tariffs against Trump’s biggest-ever bullying tariffs, he was forced to reach an early deal with imperialist China by drastically reducing the tariff rate from 145% to 30%. Though to a lesser extent, Trump had to make similar compromises with EU and Canada too. In this context, the following is a brief note on how Trumpism is transforming itself as a grave-digger of US imperialism with regard to both domestic and foreign policies.
Vanishing Domestic Political-Economic Basis of US Hegemony
Trump’s second coming in January 2025 was with the backing of 13 leading US tech giants and financial oligarchs led by world’s richest billionaire Elon Musk. As such, immediately after coming to power, Trump appointed Musk, as in-charge of DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency), specifically created for downsizing the government and rolling back it from welfare and social expenditures. However, a few months later, due to irresolvable differences with Trump’s short-sighted and reckless policies, Musk had to resign. Trump’s so-called neoliberal “big beautiful bill” that, among other things, added further corporate tax-cuts, though was finally adopted, initially suffered an ignominious defeat in the House Budget Committee because of opposition from Republicans who joined with Democrats to vote it down. Of course, while the Federal courts have their rulings in tune with Constitutional guidelines, the US Supreme Court has been generally endorsing Trump’s far-right, neofascist policies. At the same time, the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has already predicted an impending catastrophic stagflation and economic doomsday ahead for US consequent on Trump’s isolationist policies. And, Trump finds it difficult to remove him because of a landmark 1935 ruling of the Supreme Court that limited Presidential powers in dismissing Fed Chair, though Trump is exploring other options to force Powell’s exit.
After his ascent to power, the average tariffs on countries imposed by Trump during January-April 2025 were quite unprecedented in over a century of US imperialism. Its immediate domestic impact was a plunge of the stock markets in US, EU and Asia. Initial estimates had put Trump tariffs’ impact at around $1.4 trillion worth of US imports by April 2025. However, following strong domestic opposition and resentment from EU, coupled with the challenge from Chinese retaliatory tariffs, Trump was forced to partially rollback his unilateral tariffs. As such, the estimated average tariff rate was reduced to around 15% in June 2025. In imposing unprecedented tariffs, Trump had invoked extra-ordinary powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The consequent countermeasures resorted by EU have resulted in loss of European market for even Tesla like US companies. In brief, Trump’s protectionist tariffs imposed on both friends and foes alike, boomeranged in the form of stock market crash, business uncertainty, chaotic environment in market, all resulting in a threat of “stagflation” on US itself. Obviously, compared with China or even EU, the US today is a money-spinning economy where the financial sphere is growing totally cut off from the productive sphere. Most of the consumer goods are being imported from low-cost global sources such as China, India, etc., where wage is low compared with that in US. Regarding crucial industrial inputs like rare earths which are indispensable for frontier technologies including military technology, vehicles and numerous other manufacturing industries, US is abjectly depending on China which controls 90% of global rare earth processing. In view of large-scale import of goods and industrial inputs from China, the higher tariffs on China coupled with China’s reciprocal or retaliatory tariffs on US goods would adversely affect domestic production and raise inflation too. The decline in the imports of cheap fisheries, agricultural and dairy products, pharmaceuticals, etc from India following tariffs on them will also lead to rise in US domestic prices. According to preliminary reports, compared to the 2.4 percent growth in 2024, US GDP is going to be plummeted to its half, i.e., 1.2 percent in 2025.
As already noted, being a typical racist and neofascist, Trump’s tirade against immigrants and foreigners have crossed all limits. In the process of ruthlessly suppressing domestic opposition to his policies, Trump is undermining judiciary and rule of law, autonomy of universities, media freedom and long-established rules and procedures of US federal administration. For instance, ever since American Civil War, federalism has provided the internal coherence and strength for US emergence as a leading world power. While preventing concentration of power with the central regime, it divided power between the Central and State governments, ensuring both unity and` diversity, which no US president has challenged so far. On the other hand, Trump is undermining all these established liberal and federal traditions. For instance, he has even threated to invoke the rarely used 1807 Insurrection Act that grants executive powers to president in deploying military to deal with domestic issues. Recently, by sidelining California governor, and by using military to quash people’s protests in Los Angeles against his immigration policies, Trump has not only dismantled US federalism but even politicised the military in the process. Of late, he is deploying the so-called National Guards to other important cities too.
Vehemently opposing such fascist moves including Trump’s most inhuman deportation of immigrants to Afro-Asian-Latin American countries, his patronage of Zionist genocide of Palestinians including his criminal and illegal attacks on Iranian nuclear sites, millions of people are rising up in Washington and all major states across US, challenging Trump’s presidency. The recent anti-Trump “No King” protests have taken place in 2000 cities in US attended by millions of people including university students, scholars, intellectuals and wide spectrum of democratic sections, quite unprecedented in US history. In the 19 October “No King” protests, more than 7 million people participated in 2700 US cities. All well-meaning people are coming forward against the patriarchal and Evangelist Trump’s dehumanizing language towards differently-abled people like LGBT including even those with disabilities like autism, against racial minorities, and undocumented people. And, the social-democratic leader Bernie Sanders and Democrats including even disenchanted Republican law-makers have raised bipartisan challenges to Trump’s pro-Zionist military involvement in Iran and in the recent US-backed Zionist strike at Qatar. Trump’s latest Gaza Peace Plan has become a non-starter and a farce. All these developments and the widespread opposition against Trumpism have already imparted irreparable damage to the US image as “paradise of democracy” that formed the solid domestic basis for US projection as world hegemon. That is, growing people’s resistance against Trump’s economic and political moves, which has assumed the character of an anti-Trump movement across US is now speeding up the erosion of the domestic base essential for its imperialist hegemony.
Undermining of NATO and Trump’s Withdrawal from Multilateral Agreements
Secondly, the decline and downfall of US hegemony is integrally linked up with the shaking of the postwar strategic US-EU alliance. The European powers who were weakened by the Second World War had also accepted the 1941 Atlantic Charter or the Anglo-American blueprint prepared jointly by the eclipsing and rising global hegemons that envisaged the essential political, economic and military arrangements for the postwar world. Accordingly, the UN system including all its affiliated and specialised institutions, the Bretton Woods Monetary system (IMF and World Bank with US veto power in them) and the dollar as world currency, and a whole set of military arrangements such as NATO, SEATO, etc. and world-wide US military bases were the essential tools at the disposal of postwar neocolonial order led by US. And through Marshall Plan, or European Recovery Program, US took the initiative for reconstructing war-torn Europe. The NATO or Transatlantic Military Alliance led by US and founded in 1949 that included Canada and 10 EU members (which expanded overtime to include 32 members) began as the largest US-led neocolonial military organisation that strengthened the Anglo-Saxon global dominance. To be precise, it has been this Western or US imperialist-led military bloc that acted as the foundation for US hegemony on the one hand, and provided effective ideological-political weapon against Soviet bloc till its collapse, on the other.
However, the short-sighted, reckless and isolationist MAGA of Trump has already subverted the very basis of this US-EU alliance so assiduously built up over decades as the central pillar of postwar US hegemony. In continuation of his repeated and senseless statement on Canada calling it the “51st state”, threatening of taking over of Greenland from Denmark, and Panama Canal from Panama and even taking over Gaza from Palestinians for converting it into a global tourist resort, coercing of Ukraine for arriving at a deal for its rare minerals, softening of the US approach to Russia including bilateral talks with Putin totally excluding EU, etc., have alienated all erstwhile US allies. However, most important is Trumpism’s weakening of US-EU alliance including NATO, though the NATO-led Ukraine war had imparted a European cohesion till Trump’s coming to power in January 2025. Now, most of the European powers, and the Eurosceptic and xenophobic far-right in particular, no longer consider US as a reliable ally, and for them, the postwar American shield for Europe or the security guaranteed by US through NATO in return for EU’s recognition of US as world leader, has become meaningless. Moreover, in the context of Trump’s unilateral tariffs, the EU members have begun seeking trading partners from ASEAN, Mercosur and even the building up of bilateral trade relations with China and even with neocolonial countries including India.
Of late, though Trump has made a temporary deal with EU amid strong opposition from countries like Spain, his threats to withdraw from NATO and questioning of the merits of NATO’s Article 5 – which says that an attack on any NATO country is an attack on all of them – have created strong resentment among EU members. Article 5 was inserted to protect Europe from Soviet Union during Cold War. However, according to Trumpism, in the post-Cold War world situation, the huge NATO expenditures of US is an obstacle for the road towards MAGA. As such, in addition to repeatedly criticising EU members for not meeting their defence quota of 2 percent of GDP, Trump has demanded an increase in their defence spending to 5 percent of GDP, which the EU members of NATO in its recent meeting have agreed in principle, even as left-leaning Spain revolted against it. Trump’s attempts to make deals directly with Putin bypassing EU members of NATO has sent shock waves across leading European powers such as France, Germany, Italy, etc., who were safely enjoying the military protection of US till now in the absence of a European military. This has prompted European Commission to move towards greater defence integration independent of NATO with the scope of potential European military force. Its immediate outcome is European Commission’s “ReArm Europe” plan having an outlay of over 800 billion euros (900 billion dollars) within four years. Even discussion on an independent European nuclear defence umbrella is also in full swing. The ultimate outcome is a weakening of the strategic global Anglo-Saxon alliance.
In fact, together with the undermining of US-EU alliance, Trump had initiated US withdrawal from several international agreements and treaties during his first term itself. Examples are the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, 1951 Refugee Convention, UNESCO, UNHRC, and even WHO, though Trump’s withdrawals from the last three were later rescinded by Biden. However, there are reports that Trumpism may repeat and intensify this process based on its “America First” policy that focuses on bilateral deals and disregards multilateral agreements. Of course, the most vicious form of this bilateral deal today is the long-standing US-Zionist alliance by which the latter acts as former’s postwar ‘military outpost’ in Middle East, regarding which there is unshakeable unanimity among Republicans and Democrats. However, Iran’s counter-attack on US military bases in Qatar and Iraq following US illegal bombing of Iranian nuclear sites and Trump’s unilateral announcement of cease-fire, and seeking the help of China to pacify Iran, amply prove the demise or fragmentation of postwar unipolar US dominance in the Middle East. The inhuman and undignified deportation of immigrants, travel-ban restricting entry into US from 12 countries, imposition of visa restrictions to 7 countries, and so on, are other manifestations of “isolationism” inherent in Trumpism.
Trumpism and Tilting of Imperialist Power Balance Towards China
As noted at the outset, unlike other countries, Chinese retaliation through both tariff and non-tariff barriers following Trump’s imposition of 145% tariff on it was a severe blow to Trump. During his first term itself, the trade war initiated against China was a total failure. After his second coming in 2025 with the motto MAGA, Trump reiterated his accusation against China for its intellectual property thefts, long-standing unfair trade practices including dumping of US market with cheap Chinese products resulting in huge trade deficit for US, forced transfer of American technology, etc. But China’s tit-for-tat imposition of 125% tariff on US was quite unexpected for Trump with the economistic mindset of a real-estate developer rather than that of a seasoned politician. At the same time, China could ease the impact of reduced exports to US by easily diverting its exports to South and Southeast Asia, Europe, Africa and Latin America. This would have serious disruption on US economy leading to a loss of $1.6 trillion in GDP. However, sensing the danger, Trump managed to strike a deal with China, even as the Sino-US inter-imperialist contradictions are sharpening in manifold ways. Thus, the trade war against China initiated by Trump exposed one thing: i.e., the US needs China more than China needs the US.
Of course, China is the biggest exporting country today, and after joining WTO in 2001, its exports have soared 14 times during the past two decades from $250 billion to $3.58 trillion in 2024. Today, 60% of the countries of the world is China’s trading partners, while US has only 30%. And, China is world’s biggest capital exporter, as manifested through $1 trillion Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), surpassing the US. Even if the US market is denied to China, due to its low-cost production, as leader of SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation), BRICS and RCEP and through many bilateral deals with countries such as Pakistan, Iran, and other countries, it is still possible for China to carve out export markets and create “neocolonial spheres of influence” in Afro-Asian-Latin American countries competing with the US and EU. With its well-defined lead over “frontier technologies” including AI and Biotechnology, China today is home to 24 innovations hubs among WIPO’s (World Intellectual Property Organisation) top 100, whereas US comes second with 20 and India having 4. China is the undisputed manufacturing powerhouse with more than 30% of world total estimated at $5.65 trillion in industrial output, while US holds second place with $2.3 trillion (and India having only $0. 5 trillion, i.e., less than one-tenth of China). To be precise, though US is still considered as the leading imperialist power in terms of billionaire wealth and accounting for 40% of the world military spending, in terms of infrastructure, transport equipment, high speed rail, rare earth, defence and space technology, manufacturing, and in all frontier technologies, China has already surpassed US, and hence controls their global supply chains. And based on Purchasing Power Parity, US GDP is only 75% of China (According to PPP, China’s GDP is $40.72 trillion; US is $30.51 trillion). This is what forced Trump to reach an agreement with China at the earliest.
It is in this background that amid Trump’s reckless, “protectionist”, “economic nationalist” and “isolationist” policies, a new configuration of postwar world order led by China is challenging the US-led Anglo-American global domination of two- centuries. The 25th Heads of State Summit of SCO attended by 27 countries, followed by Commemoration of Second World War, led by Xi, Putin and Kim, heads of States from China, Russia and North Korea including the display of most advanced weapons in the Victory Day parade and the statements thereof are curtain-raiser for the emergence of a multipolar world. Of course, this China-led multilateralism, in view of India’s inherent servility to declining US imperialism, may also assume the form of a unipolar Asia under China’s professed multipolarity. For instance, Xi’s unilateral announcement of a SCO Bank at the Summit coupled with the already existing AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank formed in 2016) and NDB (New Development Bank of BRICS since 2015), all led by China are set to emerge as a powerful rival to US-dominated Bretton Woods System. As history has proved, while Western pundits have characterised this new configuration an “axis of evil”, the emerging world order will not be a text copy of the Anglo-American model, but a different one whose essence will still be “neocolonial” and “neoliberal” in another form. At the same time, together with the geopolitical, economic and financial initiatives such as SCO, BRICS, RCEP, BRI, AIIB, etc., which encompass more than half the world population, this emerging multipolar global arrangement, unlike earlier, is capable to effectively challenge and take up the strategic requisites such as nuclear technology, space missions, electronic vehicles, artificial intelligence and digital healthcare, oils and rare minerals, and above all an alternative currency and payment systems needed to overcome Washington’s financial blockades and payment hurdles, all of which will form the material basis of the emerging global geopolitics, and consequent alterations in inter-imperialist contradictions.
Trend Towards “De-dollarisation”
In this overall background, the most decisive factor that is going to dismantle US hegemony is the so called “de-dollarisation” or the impending shift away from dollar as the international currency. Dollar as world currency, reinforced by US Treasury and Bretton Woods system, has been one of the foundations of US hegemony. And today, the trend towards de-dollarisation is intertwined with the declining phase of US imperialism. In fact, this trend is there since the stagflation of the 1970s and has gathered momentum since the turn of the 21st century, especially since the 2008 world economic crisis. Now, Trumpism is acting as a catalyst for this process. Most of the members of SCO and BRICS in their bilateral relations have already bypassed the dollar, and are using their own respective currencies. However, in spite of the biggest tariff blow from Trump, being a lackey of US imperialism and due to pressure from the strong American lobby in India whose fabulous wealth is kept as dollar reserves, except its oil trade with Russia, the Modi regime is still depending on the dollar for its transactions even in BRICS and SCO. Recently, the Indian government has given its assurance to Trump of its non-cooperation with the de-dollarisation move on the part of BRICS led by China.
Of course, de-dollarisation has been an increasing trend since the abolition of dollar-gold convertibility by Nixon on 15 August 1971. In essence, since the unshackling of gold standard, in tandem with relative decline of US economy, the trust in dollar has been eroding and today dollar continues as global currency only in the absence of an alternative arrangement. Meanwhile, concerted efforts on the part of China towards regional and bilateral agreements for alternative payment mechanisms are strengthening. The Chinese financial market is opened for Russia as part of speeding up the de-dollarisation process. As a result, the share of dollar in global central bank reserves has been steadily falling, now reaching around 57% compared to 85% in mid-1970s. And, in view of the economic downturn haunting US, the reserve currency status of dollar is likely to decline at a faster rate. And as already mentioned, many options are emerging. Ongoing China-led initiatives (excluding India that acts as an agent of US within BRICS) for a BRICS currency, internationalisation of China’s Renminbi (RMB) or Yuan in its digital version as Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) beginning with cross border payments among members of RCEP, China’s bilateral payment mechanism with Saudi, UAE, and Iran, etc., are impending threats to dollar, and are serious moves in this direction.
Obviously, the most decisive material basis of US hegemony under postwar neocolonialism has been the role of dollar as the international medium of exchange, store of value and standard for short-term and long-term payments. Without any material basis, the US can print any amount of dollar and acquire anything from any part of the world using dollar, a power which no other country can exercise. Further, with a public debt of $37 trillion, the largest in the world, the US can dominate the world without questioned by anybody. And by pushing down the value of other currencies through their depreciation or devaluation, US can suck out real resources and wealth from other countries at cheap rate. Further, to keep adequate quantity of dollar reserves, other countries have to part with real resources. At a global level, super-rich elite sections often keep their wealth in the form of dollar reserves, which indirectly enhance the US economic power over real resources. However, in view of the decline of US hegemony and the possibility of the emergence of new alternatives, now countries are rapidly reducing their dollar reserves and acquiring gold, euro, RMB, and other generally acceptable financial instruments such as bonds. At the same time, fully knowing that dollar as world currency forms the primary roots of US hegemony, and that a de-dollarisation implies the death-knell of a century of US dominance, Trump is now threatening dependent countries like India to move away from such steps now going on under the initiative of China. Revealingly, the powerful US lobby and crony capitalists in countries like India are resolutely opposing a de-dollarisation move. Even Chinese imperialism, which has been spearheading the de-dollarisation initiative, is cautious to avoid a sudden move in this direction, as around 25% of $3.6 trillion of its foreign exchange reserves is still in the form of dollar, though China is trying to reduce its dollar holdings at a faster rate.
To be precise, US imperialism, which became the postwar world hegemon, and which could emerge as the leader of a unipolar world following collapse of Soviet Union, has been in a descending phase in the 21st century. In fact, Trumpism and its disruptive and reckless policies are only catalyst for this inevitable decline. US continuity as world’s largest military machine has become unsustainable given the crumbling economic foundations of US. From a political-economy perspective, US is much weaker than China. While US has higher nominal GDP, as already noted, US industrial production or manufacturing today is only half that of China. China is the largest trading partner of Latin America which was once called the ‘backyard’ of US, while China’s trade with the entire Africa is three times that of US. Coming to the crucial issue of export of capital, China’s $1 trillion worth BRI that envisages investments in infrastructures such as, roads, ports, airports, etc. till 2049 across Asia, Africa, Europe and even Latin America, is the largest capital export program in imperialist history. In the process, many countries have already become China’s neocolonial dependencies. As already noted, in the sphere of “frontier technologies” such as AI, Digitisation, Biotechnology, etc., imperialist China is much ahead than that of US or Anglo-Saxon powers. And, in continuation of the Afghan debacle, the latest contradictions that US has with its allies in the Middle East in the context of US-Zionist war crimes on Palestinians are also facilitating a shift in global geopolitics from West to the East. Still, as evident from the latest events in Nepal, US imperialism is continuing with neocolonial interventions including ‘regime change’ in all Asian, African and Latin American countries. Amid these, the crisis confronting US is mounting without any let up. Compared to the earlier phases of crises, when temporary recoveries were possible for US through Welfare Capitalism and Neoliberalism, today Trumpism has imparted an irreversible dimension to the US decline. Of course, Trump’s untrustworthy, deceitful, far-right and isolationist policies and his overtures to allies and foes including efforts to win over Putin regarding Ukraine and treacherous pro-Zionist approach to Middle East, etc., are the immediate causes for the inevitable retreat of US imperialism.
As mentioned at the outset of this note, since every phenomenon is constantly changing, the unfolding global situation is not going to be a repetition of the two centuries of Anglo-Saxon imperialist trajectory. Obviously, during the preceding quarter century of neoliberal globalisation, and under internationalisation of corporate capital, though China has transformed into a major imperialist power capable to challenge the US, it’s modus operandi is entirely different from that of Western imperialist bloc. As an inexhaustible source of cheap labour for super-exploitation, while integrating itself with global corporate capital, China’s neocolonial domination and building up ‘spheres of influence’ are not a text copy of the US-led Anglo-Saxon model. At the same time, the inherent crisis of world imperialism as manifested in geo-political tensions, economic, cultural and ecological crises that threaten the very sustenance of humankind are applicable to China also. Unless the working and oppressed peoples of the world are coming forward with a political alternative, the crisis confronting humankind in manifold ways will intensify further, irrespective of whether US is replaced by another hegemon or another imperialist bloc, or a by a different multipolar world order.
Part 2
India’s Status in the Shifting Global Power Balance
Of course, servility to imperialism, Britain during the colonial period and US under postwar neocolonialism, is inseparable from RSS that controls the reins of Indian fascist regime today through its political tool BJP. During the Nehruvian period, despite US manoeuvres through Bretton Woods, dollar hegemony and PL-480, India could manage US pressure to an extent, taking advantage of Cold War, Non-Alignment, and through Indo-Soviet Treaty. But, in the post-Cold War, unipolar, neoliberal period, in tandem with the steady growth in the stranglehold of far-right, pro-American RSS over Indian polity and society, the Indian regime got exposed itself as a lackey of US imperialism. As it’s manifestation, in gross disregard of erstwhile Gandhian anti-Zionist positions, at this critical juncture when the US-Zionist nexus is accomplishing the biggest holocaust upon Palestinians in Gaza, and even as the international community is isolating Zionist regime through a series of political-economic sanctions, as part of the neofascist Yanki-Zionist-Hindutva alliance, the fascist Modi regime is even strengthening Bilateral Investment Agreement with Zionist “war criminals” regarding arms trade and export of blue-collar Indian workers for construction sites in Gaza. Obviously, regarding all domestic policy matters, Modi regime is following the diktats from IMF-World Bank-WTO trio and neoliberal centres coupled with policy-making in crony-capitalist-corporate board rooms, keeping the parliament as a mere showcase of democracy. As we have already discussed many times, the outcome of Modi regime’s neoliberal-neofascist policies over the past one decade has been the transformation of India with 146 crore people into a “citadel of global poverty” with 53% of world’s “absolute poor”, whereas India’s rank is No. 3 regarding the number of billionaires. Neofascist regime’s claims of “Atmanirbhar” and “Viksit Bharat” are a mockery for India, the most populous country with 146 crore people, having only 2.8% share in world manufacturing. For defence equipment including fighter jets, and for both soft-wares and hard-wares of all frontier technologies, Modi government is depending on imperialist powers such as US, China, EU and Japan. Poverty, inequality, unemployment, forced displacement and consequent migration, environmental destruction, corruption, and price-rice are sky-rocketing on the one hand, while fascist oppression and atrocities on minorities, especially disenfranchisement of Muslims and Dalits are mounting on the other.
While the foreign policy of fascist Modi government is ultimately dictated by its strategic dependence on US imperialism, its immediate moves are based on the interests of Indian crony-capitalists like Adani and Ambani who are junior partners of MNCs. For instance, rather than the priorities of the people of India, Modi’s concern is to save both Gautam Adani and Sagar Adani from the likely extradition order from US Department of Justice for their offering of $250 million in bribes in violation of US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. Similarly, rather than the Indian people, the beneficiary of cheap oil import from Russia is Ambani whose refineries in Gujarat are processing and selling petroleum products to Europe, thereby making huge profits. As such, in spite of Trump’s highest bullying tariff of 50% on India, it is for the sake of Ambani that Modi has placed himself in a weak bargaining position between US and China like putting legs in two boats. Meanwhile, Adani’s recent ban on Russian crude oil vessels from entering its ports, a move to appease US, being a heavy blow to Ambani who is the largest Indian importer of Russian oil, has created apprehensions across crony-capitalist circles. At the same time, fully knowing that India is not a dependable ally, Xi’s dealings with Modi in the SCO Summit were only formal. Among the major partners of SCO, India is the only country that remains outside BRI, and many of the strategic decisions announced by Xi were together with Putin, Kim and others, after Modi left China. To be precise, India’s balancing partnership with both Washington and Beijing coupled with long-standing contradictions with the latter has placed Modi regime in a real dilemma.
Fully knowing Indian government’s irresolvable contradictions with China, Trump administration is now taking all efforts to tame and bring Modi regime under its firm grip. While US officials are continuing with their unilateral accusations on India, through public statements and social media posts, both Trump and Modi are sharing optimism about “a successful conclusion” to the ongoing trade negotiations and maintain the strategic relationship between the two in the Indo-Pacific, targeting China. Last year, under diktats from Trump regime, India had completely stopped its import of cheap oil from Venezuela and Iran, and Trump was expecting a similar move from Modi regarding import of Russian oil before imposing punitive tariffs. It was in this situation that Modi tried to use his links with SCO as a bargaining chip with Trump. But it has proved as unviable. As a result, according to the latest information, Indian trade team led by Commerce Minister Goyal has scheduled its Washington trip to carry on the talks for the India-US FTA (Free Trade Agreement). In continuation of that, US is also in a hurry to have India’s participation in the next Quad Summit. Thus, on account of its inherent neocolonial servitude to US, the Modi regime has no qualms to forget the series of ignominious blows inflicted by Trump such as 50% punitive tariffs (including the threat of raising them to 100%) that may cause around 1% loss in GDP along with joblessness, visa denial to Indian professionals and students, undignified deportations of Indian immigrants in military planes, Trump’s claim on Indo-Pak ceasefire that he repeated around 40 times amid Modi’s revealing silence, and so on.
It is not intended here to go into a detailed analysis of the political-situation of India. However, one thing is to be stressed: on account of Modi regime’s pro-American, Islamophobic and neofascist orientation towards oppressed nations and peoples, globally, it is totally in an isolated position, though Godi media portray it otherwise. India’s expansionist and big-brotherly approach to neighbouring countries is already much discussed. At the same time, being a junior partner of US in latter’s machinations against China, India has been purposefully avoiding all trade agreements and treaties with ASEAN and RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), solely because of the involvement of China in them. Take, for instance, the case of 10-member ASEAN with which India under the Manmohan government, more or less, had a good trade relationship. But under US pressure and accusing ASEAN a “B-team of China”, Modi regime cut off all relations with it in 2021. Same was the case with 15-member RCEP (which together with ASEAN includes China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. Obviously, it was the China factor that prompted Modi in 2019 to leave RCEP, which now accounts for 30% of global GDP and 30% of world population. If India had continued in these trade agreements, they could have been used as a shield against the Trumpian bullying tariffs by providing unhindered market access for India. In other words, Modi regime’s abject surrender before US imperialism has led to India’s shameful isolation from other countries, thereby putting heavier burdens on the working class, peasants, and micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) where alone around 13 crore Indian people are engaged for sustenance. Modi’s hurried ‘GST Reform 2025’, the so called “two-slab tax revolution” to boost domestic demand to compensate for the loss of US market was intended to overcome the repercussions arising from Trump’s 50% punitive tariffs on Indian goods. Of course, these and related domestic issues that India has to confront in the days ahead in connection with the US imperialist policies need detailed analysis.
P J James
11/10/2025
