Brief Note on the Current Global and Indian Political Situation

Brief Note on the Current Global and Indian Political Situation

[Adopted at CC Meeting held in Raipur during 17-21 May 2025]

1. International Situation

The far-right, neofascist global and Indian situation has assumed more complex dimensions nowadays. Most significant is the second time ascendance of Donald Trump as the 47^th president of US, which is now in a declining phase compared to a century of hegemonic position that it held till the dawn of the 21^st century. Today, under “Trumpism” or “Trumponomics” with its motto “America First” or MAGA (Make America Great Again), US imperialism is pursuing a policy of extreme ‘economic nationalism’, and highly ‘protectionist’/ ‘isolationist’ trade measures, regressive corporate tax-cuts, anti-worker policies, business deregulation and drastic reduction in social welfare spending coupled with a series of neofascist Islamophobic, anti-immigrant and pro-Zionist policies.  However, as of now, the biggest-ever bullying and protectionist tariffs imposed by Trump against countries, at a global level are now boomeranged as a looming threat towards stagflation – a situation of economic stagnation coupled with high inflation – on US itself. This has compelled Trump to keep his unilateral executive orders in abeyance and initiate direct bilateral talks with other imperialist powers, especially China, which has openly challenged Trump.

Regarding western allies of US and countries like Japan and Australia, Trump is keeping the door open for discussion, even as he completed the initial round of discussion with China at Qatar, following its “retaliatory tariffs” against Trump’s bullying tariffs, pushing him a defensive position. Trump’s ignominious defeat before China is due to many reasons. With more than twice manufacturing capacity of US, it is easy for China with its inexhaustible and cheapest source of labour to easily penetrate into global markets, in addition to China’s own largest domestic market. Therefore, even though, the tariff war initiated by Trump will be economically harmful for world imperialist system including China, its negative impact on China will be relatively less compared to US. Even in the field of 21^st century “frontier technologies” including AI, China has proved its capability to effectively compete with US as evident from the heavy blows that Chinese DeepSeek has inflicted on Silicon Valley-based tech-giants leading to loss worth trillions of dollars. Further, Trump has to face severe criticism and isolation even from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who has already predicted an impending catastrophic stagflation and economic doomsday ahead for US on account of Trumpism. And the heaviest blow is Musk’s resignation from DOGE itself. Thus, in spite of the full backing of 13 leading US billionaires including Musk, Trump is being forced to soften his extreme nationalist posture.

Meanwhile, simmering discontent of US working class and democratic sections is rising up against neofascist Trump’s executive orders cutting down employment opportunities, winding up of even government departments in the guise of eliminating bureaucratic inefficiency, far-right austerity policies targeted at working and toiling people, forcible deportation of immigrants, etc. in violation of constitutional principles. On the top of this, Trump, primarily being a real estate-developer rather than a statesman, his isolationist policies are undermining the foundations of many of the US-led political and military arrangements so assiduously built up after second World War under US leadership. In this regard, the severest opposition that US faces is from its European allies that has affected the coherence of NATO itself, compelling EU to resort to alternative pan-European military alternatives. One of the dimensions of the Trumpian intervention in Europe is visible in the emerging twists associated with the prolonged Ukraine war itself.

Amid these, Trump’s concentrated attention on the Middle East/West Asia should be seen in relation to the neocolonial geopolitics of US imperialism starting with the super-imposition of Zionist Israel on the Palestine people. As all well-meaning people know, Israel continues to exist only because of its role as a US military outpost in the Middle-East. The extermination and genocide of Palestinians transforming the entire Gaza into a horrific graveyard is one of its outcomes. In ousting Assad regime from Syria by backing the Islamist forces, the US-Zionist axis played an ingenious role, and in the process weakened Iran’s involvement there. Later, while destabilising the entire Mediterranean region including frequent targeting of Houthis by US-Zionist axis, Trump has also initiated nuclear talks with Iran on the one hand, and further weaponizing of Saudi on the other. “Isolationist” Trump’s intensified efforts to ensure US presence in Gulf needs to be seen in the broader context of China-brokered Saudi-Iran deal that substantially weakened the Abraham Accords ( that envisaged a Middle East Quad) between Arab regimes and Israel, mediated by Trump during his first term.

Though an objective evaluation of Trumpism is yet to be made, from a long-term perspective, it clearly marks a shift in the policy of US since its emergence as leader of the imperialist camp in the 20^th century. Today, under neoliberal-neofascism, imperialism has reached a paralysis of both theory and policy, since internationalisation of capital and production has reached their farthest limits. As such, space for manoeuvring within the system is fast depleting. For instance, in spite of 21^st century technological revolutions including that in AI, with just half of China’s industrial production, US is in a ‘financialisation-stagnation’ trap, with its self-imposed super-power responsibilities. It is at this juncture that Trump aims at bringing production and investment back to US through a “de-globalisation” comprising a series of protectionist, isolationist, and nationalist policies. It also involves, an alteration in the very foundations of postwar US-led imperialist political-economic and military arrangements, which had also put US at the hegemonic position as supreme neocolonial arbiter over the years. Trumpism also undermines existing global cooperation due to protectionist measures, trade wars, geopolitical shifts and tensions, in addition to making international political-economic and military arrangements irrelevant. More particularly, a “de-dollarisation” trend is also developing linked with this. Quite logically, all these involve a reconfiguration of inter-imperialist contradictions and an alteration or undermining of the foundations of postwar Western imperialist alliance which enabled US to have its hegemonic position as supreme postwar arbiter till now.

Of course, workers, oppressed peoples and democratic forces are rising up against this far-right neofascist offensive emanating from Trump administration. As its manifestation in countries like Canada and Australia, left-of-centre parties challenging Trumpism has come to power in the latest elections. On the contrary, across Europe, the far-right neofascist forces are still on the offensive. The emergence of far-right, xenophobic, Islamophobic, anti-immigrant and neo-Nazi AfD, as the main opposition in Germany is the most threatening. In many Latin American countries, resistance to US neocolonial domination has strengthened after the second coming of Trump as US president. And, reports from Africa, unlike in the past, are positive. For instance, resistance against European, especially French, and US neocolonial interventions are surging in various forms from Burkina Faso, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Congo, Mozambique, Mali, Sudan and even from Somalia and Nigeria. Already, Burkino Faso, Niger and Mali have joined forces to become one nation. Discussions are going on to have a single currency for African Union and apolitical unity among African states against US-EU imperialism. However, in the absence of a political alternative led by ideologically-equipped Left, these emerging struggles are diverted or used by rival imperialist powers. For instance, amid the turbulences, imperialist China, through its BRI and other means are systematically building up its ‘spheres of influence’ across Africa. Many self-professed Left parties from Europe, due to their Eurocentrism, are unable to concretely evaluate the emerging situation in Africa.

While Trumpism is becoming a gravedigger of US hegemony, bureaucratic state monopoly capitalism in China, or ‘imperialism with Chinese characteristics’ with its inexhaustible supply of cheap labour, mastery over frontier technologies such as AI and their effective application in manufacturing and defence, is successfully challenging US imperialism, which is increasingly isolated from Western imperialist camp. Using Digitisation, China is devising its own Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) to be used as medium of exchange, replacing dollar, in its transactions with its close trading partners including ASEAN. This has contributed in speeding up the ‘de-dollarisation’ process or declining role of dollar as the international currency. Of course, the inter-imperialist contradictions between US and China including the issue of Taiwan are sharpening further, even as Trump has taken initiative for a resetting of the Sino-US trade relations.

These emerging trends coupled with already existing geopolitics and neofascist global situation with its ideological roots in anti-Communism, Islamophobia, ethnic nationalism, racism, majoritarian religious fundamentalism, etc. have made the survival of workers and oppressed people, refugees, immigrants and asylum seekers too difficult. More horrific is the case of Palestinians where US-Zionist axis is carrying forward 21^st century’s biggest extermination in Gaza, and where all international institutions and arrangements established for enforcing rule of law, avoiding war-crimes and enforcing peace have become irrelevant. Though people from all walks of life, especially students the world over, are rising up against the shocking and heartbreaking Zionist genocide of Palestinians including tens of thousands of children, the neoliberal-neofascist regimes across the world, despite their statements condemning the Israeli war-crimes, are reluctant to initiate the required political interventions, economic sanctions, arms embargo, etc. against Israel. More or less is the case of Rohingya refugees, whom the UN identifies as world’s “most persecuted minority” today. According to recent reports, the fascist Indian regime is accused of dropping 43 Rohingya refugees, including women and children in the Andaman Sea for deportation to Myanmar, though the apex court in India was disregarding the plea on this inhuman deportation citing lack of credible evidence.

2. Indian Situation

More than a decade-long strengthening of corporate-Hindutva fascism under Modi.1, Modi.2, and Modi.3, as explained in CPI (ML) Red Star’s recent booklet ‘On Understanding, Resisting and Overcoming RSS Fascism’, does not need a further explanation here. This latest booklet on RSS Fascism has made a concrete evaluation of the political-economic and ideological basis of Indian fascism led by RSS, world’s biggest fascist organisation, which is celebrating its centenary this year. The 22^nd April ‘terrorist attack’ at Pahalgam which is located in the Indian-administered Kashmir region far away from the LoC happened in this context. The Indian military strikes and Pakistan’s counter attacks took place during 7-10 May 2025. To this day, there has been no convincing explanation from Modi government regarding the security lapses that led to terrorist attack in Pahalgam or on the inability of identifying the actual culprits involved in the ‘terrorist attack’ in an area of J&K, world’s most militarised region today. Whoever be the forces behind it, as the post-Pahalgam developments proved, it was the saffron fascist forces who became its ultimate beneficiaries.

As well-meaning people know, fascists are very adept in transforming crisis into opportunities. Pahalgam has been the latest example. Most condemnable has been the venomous and malicious Islamophobic campaign led by the Hindutva fascists across the country. In this regard, the role played by saffron-corporate Godi media was like that of a strategic weapon rather a propaganda tool in unleashing warmongering, jingoism, Hindutva nationalism and Islamophobia throughout the country. Those who expressed their differences are targeted as anti-nationals, ‘urban naxals’ and traitors. Of course, as was the case with ‘Pulwama’ on the eve of 2024 general election, Pahalgam has become a campaign material in view of the forthcoming Bihar elections. Revealingly, together with his jingoistic election campaign in Bihar, Modi made the surprising announcement for a Caste Census, which the RSS has been consistently opposing. Instead of culminating as an election stunt, it is up to all progressive-democratic forces to compel the regime to conduct an All-India Caste Census in a proper and timely manner.

India’s so called ‘non-escalatory military strikes’ against Pakistan followed by Pakistan’s retaliation, whose entire burden has fallen on the shoulders of people, have brought to the fore many revealing things.

1. Until now, no satisfactory explanation has given by Modi regime regarding the ‘terrorist attack’ in world’s most militarised region including how and why security lapses occurred and who were responsible for it.
2. Second, the Pahalgam terror attack and military conflicts during 7-10 May witnessed a planned jump in hate crimes targeted at Muslims throughout India. Reports on 184 hate crimes including 3 murders, 19 vandalisms, 39 assaults, and 84 severe hate speeches, all targeted against Muslims are already in the public domain. Highest number of incidents took place in UP, followed by Uttarakhand, Assam, Maharashtra, Delhi, Bihar, Telangana, Punjab, Karnataka, Chandigarh and West Bengal, Haryana, AP, and MP in that order. And under the cover of war hysteria, Modi Government forcibly deported 43 Rohingyas by throwing them into sea.
3. Third was Trump’s direct involvement as international policeman, declaring de-escalation and halt of Indo-Pak strikes, that once again brought forward RSS’ servility to US and Modi regime’s role as a lackey of US imperialism. Even after Trump reiterating his claim as mediator behind Indo-Pak truce and though the same was reported to a US Court, to this day his Indian counterpart has not broken his silence on the matter. When Modi government justified the most undignified deportation of Indian immigrants in US war planes, this ignominious dependence on US imperialism had been exposed already.
4. Fourthly, except Zionist Israel, no country came forward directly supporting Modi regime, which also was totally isolated in the 25-member Executive Board of IMF, where disregarding India’s plea, all the 24 members voted for IMF loan to Pakistan.
5. Information from international media and defence analysts have confirmed Pakistan downing India’s French-made Rafale jets (including other fighter jets) using Chinese-manufactured J-10. Even Subramanian Swamy, senior BJP leader, has admitted that Pakistan downed five Indian jets including Rafale aircraft. This raises serious political questions of corruption related to dumping of obsolete weapons in India, since under Modi regime the price of Rafaels was raised by 4 times compared to that under UPA regime, that too without any technology transfer to HAL. Following downing of Rafale by J-10, the share prices of France’s Dassault Aviation plummeted by 7 percent, while that of Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, the Chinese aerospace company that produces J-10 fighter jets had a single-day surge of 20 percent on May 12.

However, within India, most despicable was the wholehearted and uncritical support given to fascist regime’s war effort by all opposition parties including CPI and CPI (M). This calls for a serious evaluation. Today, Islamophobic warmongering by Hindutva fascists should be viewed in relation to the inseparable and inherent relation between fascism and war.  Any laxity in the approach to this crucial question, will adversely affect the uncompromising struggle against RSS fascism. The position taken by Congress, Trinamool, DMK, AAP and other ruling class parties unequivocally point out that their difference with RSS/BJP is only regarding winning elections, and not regarding crucial policy questions including neoliberalism and RSS fascism. More deplorable in this regard is that of CPI/CPM parties. The Pinarayi government in Kerala, for instance, joining with RSS street goons and based on their diktats, arrested democratic forces who came for anti-war rally in Trichur. In that sense, CPM has degenerated to the level of “social fascists”- a term used by Comintern in the 6^th Congress. Therefore, today, in the antifascist struggle, these degenerated sections have become unworthy for even a tactical alliance.

According to unconfirmed reports, amid the series of steps surrendering India to US diktats such as Modi’s surrender to Trump in the case of deportation of Indian immigrants, Trump taking over the role of umpire in the Indo-Pak conflict, abject silence over US unilateral tariffs on India, etc., underhand dealings are in full swing to drop criminal charges, involving a $265 million corruption, against Adani, Modi’s closest crony capitalist.  As part of this, Adani’s agents have already held meetings with officials from Trump administration regarding the possibility of dropping cases filed against Adani and his nephew Sagar Adani. In the meanwhile, another twist has occurred following Trump’s latest trade deal with China, leading to a proposed 90-days mutual reduction in Sino-US tariffs. As a result, India is going to be the worst-hit. India expected that the biggest US tariff imposition on China would enable India to reduce its trade deficit with China, as “Make in India” was already spoiled by cheap Chinese imports. Far-right and pro-Western neoliberal opinion in India was that increased US tariff on China will increase US demand for Indian goods on the one hand, and India’s deeper integration with US-EU markets. But, following the deal between China and US, Modi regime is now approaching WTO against Trump’s high tariff on India. Trump’s insulting of Modi regime with his claim as mediator and his demand for more trade liberalisation seem to be the immediate causes behind India’s complaining to WTO.

In this context, another latest issue that came to the mainstream and which is linked with Indo-Pak conflict needs be noted. After all, under Modi regime, there has been a conspicuous shift from India’s erstwhile policy of non-interference in neighbouring countries. And its big-brotherly approach to Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka has been topic of serious debate. However, the issue in focus now is Modi government’s open support to Balochistan resistance against Pakistan. In fact, Balochistan problem is not a new one, and dates back to the late 1940s when, following its declaration of independence, Pakistan annexed it as its largest province in 1948. Since then, Baloch nationalists and liberation forces, demanding self-determination and control over resources, have been seeking support from different sources at a global level. At the same time, Modi government’s new-found passion with the oppressed Balochistan community emanates directly from its contradiction with Pakistan, and that became more manifest in the post-Pahalgam situation. Now, as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), as part China’s BRI, is passing through Balochistan, Baloch nationalists are opposing the same too. In this case too, India shares common cause with separatists of Balochistan. In the final analysis, in the ongoing involvement of India in the regional geopolitics including Balochistan, whose ultimate reins are with leading imperialist powers, viz., US and China, the Indian people stand to gain nothing.