Decline of US Hegemony, Shift in Imperialist Power Balance & Task of the Communists – P J James

Introduction
Today, when we are in the third decade of the 21st century, fast changes are taking place in imperialism. The law of impermanence or the idea that every social phenomenon is constantly changing and transforming itself, is becoming more evident in the case of imperialist world system too. As such, two centuries of world domination by Anglo-American capitalist-imperialist system is now in a downward phase. The industrial capitalism that flourished from mid-18th century to the last quarter of the 19th century under the leadership of Britain gave way to monopoly finance capitalism or imperialism by the turn of the 20th century, resulting in the emergence of US as the leading capitalist-imperialist power. However, UK continued as the formal colonial leader till the Second World War. Since then, the US took over the role of supreme imperialist arbiter as manifested in the transition from so called “Pax Britannica” to “Pax Americana”.
Thus, after Second World War and following the so called ‘decolonisation’ (i.e., formal ending of colonialism), the US took over the position of world hegemon in the postwar neocolonial phase of imperialism. Together with the political, economic and military arrangements required for unleashing neocolonialism, based on the 1946 agreement between US and UK, world’s most powerful intelligence network called the “Five Eyes Alliance” led by CIA also came into being. Till the 1970s, on account of the presence of a Socialist Camp, US-led imperialism pursued a policy of state-programming of the economy or “welfare capitalism”. But, when the imperialist crisis strengthened in the form of ‘stagflation’, taking advantage of the ideological-political setbacks of the International Communist Movement (ICM), since the beginning of the 1970s, US-led imperialism abandoned the ‘welfare state’ and embraced neoliberalism. Characterising the collapse of Soviet Union in 1991 as ‘end of Communism’, US ended the Cold War and declared Isam as the new enemy and conceptualised the infamous “global war on terror” based on “Islamophobia”, which now forms the ideological basis of neo-fascism (neoliberal fascism) at a global level. Establishment of WTO in 1995 and ranging it along with IMF and World Bank in which US already has veto power, further strengthened neoliberal globalisation.
However, by the turn of the 21st century, especially after the World Economic Crisis of 2007-08, US stature as world’s leading manufacturer and biggest trader has been lost to Chinese state monopoly capitalism or “imperialism with Chinese characteristics”. US GDP, which was around half of the world total in 1945, has declined to about 25 percent, while US gold reserve which was 75 percent of world total in 1945 is reduced to less than 20 percent as of now. This has led to a loss of trust in dollar’s continuity as world currency, leading to a “de-dollarisation” trend in which China has its overt and covert role. And of late, as a manifestation of the inability to carry out the super-power responsibilities incumbent on it including the maintenance of around 750-800 military bases across 80 countries of the world, US imperialism has been backtracking from its international commitments, especially to UN-affiliated institutions, which, to an extent, were political tools propped up by US itself, that enabled it to carry on the tasks as postwar neocolonial leader.
Trumpism and Vanishing Domestic Political-Economic Basis of US Hegemony
Trumpism is a catalyst of the inherent crisis and a grave-digger of US imperialist hegemony. Trump’s far-right, racist, Islamophobic, neofascist policies codified as MAGA and characterised by extreme ‘economic nationalism’ coupled with protectionist trade measures on friends and foes alike, have already become self-defeating moves. His short-sighted and reckless tariff policies have boomeranged in the form of stock market crash and threat of stagflation, leading to irresolvable differences within the US administration itself. Obviously, relative to other imperialist powers like China and EU, the US today is a money-spinning ‘bubble economy’ where the financial sphere is growing totally cut off from the productive sphere. Most of the consumer goods are being imported from cheap labour-based low-cost global sources such as China, India, etc.
As part of ruthlessly suppressing domestic opposition to his policies, Trump is undermining judiciary and rule of law, autonomy of universities, media freedom and long-established rules and procedures of US federal administration. Ever since American Civil War, federalism has provided the internal coherence and strength for US emergence as a leading world power. Now Trump is undermining all these established liberal and federal traditions. So far, the Republicans have been solidly standing with him. However, including leading members among them, the parliamentary opposition and vast majority of the American people are now against Trump. His Gaza Board Peace, constituted on the eve of the US-Zionist aggression against Iran is already exposed as a move for another US military base. The US-Zionist aggression on Iran and severe setbacks arising therefrom have led to widespread opposition against Trump from his own camp, and consequent irreparable damage to the US image as “paradise of democracy” that formed the solid domestic basis for US projection as world hegemon. That is, growing people’s resistance against Trumpism is now speeding up the erosion of the domestic base essential for US imperialist hegemony.
Undermining of NATO and Trump’s Withdrawal from Multilateral Agreements
The decline and downfall of US hegemony are integrally linked up with the shaking of the postwar strategic US-EU alliance. The European powers who were weakened by the Second World War had also accepted the 1941 Atlantic Charter or the Anglo-American blueprint prepared jointly by the eclipsing and rising global hegemons, UK and US respectively, that envisaged the essential political, economic and military arrangements for the postwar world. Accordingly, the UN system, the Bretton Woods Monetary system (IMF and World Bank with US veto power in them) and the dollar as world currency, and a whole set of military arrangements such as NATO, and world-wide US military bases were the essential tools at the disposal of postwar neocolonial order led by US. And through Marshall Plan, or European Recovery Program, the US took the initiative for reconstructing war-torn Europe. The NATO or Transatlantic Military Alliance led by US and founded in 1949 that included Canada and 10 EU members (which expanded overtime to include 32 members) began as the largest US-led neocolonial military organisation that strengthened the Anglo-Saxon global dominance. To be precise, it has been this Western or US imperialist-led military bloc that acted as the foundation for US hegemony on the one hand, and provided effective political weapon against Soviet bloc till its collapse, on the other. However, due to Trump’s unilateral economic and military moves, including the latest aggression on Iran, and NATO members’ reluctance to extend open military cooperation for it, have already weakened cohesion within NATO. In the same vein, Trump had already withdrawn from more than 60 international organisations (including those related to UN) and treaties. And the aggressiveness displayed by Trump regime, as manifested in the case of Venezuela, Iran, etc., is unravelling, not the strength, but the weakness of declining US imperialism!
Trend Towards “De-dollarisation”
The most decisive factor that is going to dismantle US hegemony is the so called “de-dollarisation” or the impending shift away from dollar as the international currency. Dollar as world currency, reinforced by US Treasury and Bretton Woods system, has been one of the foundations of US hegemony. Obviously, the trend towards de-dollarisation is intertwined with the declining phase of US imperialism. Most of the members of SCO and BRICS (except India which is still clinging on to the apron strings of US) in their bilateral relations have already bypassed the dollar, and are using their own respective currencies. Iran’s announcement, in the context of US-Zionist aggression, that only ships paying in Yuan will be allowed to pass through Hormuz, is one of the biggest blows to the petro-dollar system itself. China-led initiatives for a BRICS currency, internationalisation of China’s Yuan in its digital version as Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) beginning with cross border payments among members of RCEP, China’s bilateral payment mechanism with Saudi, UAE, and Iran, etc., are crucial in the de-dollarization process. And, in view of the decline in US hegemony and possibility of the emergence of new alternatives, now countries are rapidly reducing their dollar reserves and acquiring gold, Euro, Yuan, and other generally acceptable financial instruments such as bonds. At the same time, fully knowing that dollar as world currency forms the primary roots of US hegemony, and that a de-dollarisation implies the death-knell of a century of US dominance, Trump is now threatening ‘junior partners’ like India to move away from such steps.
Tilting of Imperialist Power Balance Towards China
Of course, while the US, with its Military-Industrial-Complex linked up with the financial oligarchy, still continues as world’s largest military machine, in terms of industrial production, trade and export of capital, China is much ahead of US. It is also successful to carve out “neocolonial spheres of influence”, while competing with the Anglo-Saxon imperialists. And in the case of all “frontier technologies” including, Digitization, AI and Biotechnology, China is ahead of both US and EU. With its cheap labour and powerful economic base and superiority in infrastructure, transport equipment, high speed rail, rare earth, defence and space technology and manufacturing, and control over their global supply chains, and above all with its professed “multipolarity”, China is set to emerge as a leader of the 21st century neoliberal world order. However, the emerging geopolitical configuration, economic and financial initiatives such as SCO, BRICS, RCEP, BRI, AIIB, etc., led by China, will not be a text copy of the two-centuries of Anglo-American model, though the essence is also neocolonial and neoliberal.
Task of the Communists
To be precise, the unfolding global situation is not going to be a repetition of the two centuries of Anglo-Saxon imperialist trajectory. Though China has transformed into a major imperialist power capable to challenge the US, it’s modus operandi is entirely different from that of Western imperialist bloc.
At this critical juncture, unless the emerging struggles and resistances of the people against imperialism and fascism are coordinated and led with a revolutionary political alternative, the crisis confronting humankind in manifold ways will intensify further, irrespective of whether US is replaced by another hegemon or another imperialist bloc, or a by a different multipolar world order. However, the crucial issue is the lack of a Communist Coordination at the international level capable to give ideological leadership to these emerging struggles from the standpoint of the working and oppressed peoples of the world. This enables ruling classes to divert and suppress the anti-fascist and anti-imperialist struggles. In this context, ideological-political clarity on 21st century imperialism, neofascism and war and proper understanding on their operations at the global level are of utmost significance.
Viewed in this perspective, urgent bilateral and multilateral initiatives are required on the part of Communists and revolutionary parties to build up broad global anti-imperialist, and anti-fascist coordination and movement based on a concrete analysis of imperialism, fascism and war. This also calls for a genuine introspection on the part of Communists regarding their failures and setbacks in general.